US trade policy uncertainty, particularly regarding President Trump’s potential “reciprocal tariffs,” is creating global market volatility. However, India’s exposure is limited, as goods exports to the US account for just ~2.2% of India’s GDP, although some sectors remain more vulnerable than others. After growing by 6.2% in Q3 FY25, high-frequency data suggest India’s economic growth continued moderate recovery in Q4. For FY26, India’s growth is projected to rise to 6.4%, driven by policy measures, including monetary policy easing. Given the easing inflation reflected in the 3.6% CPI headline print for February and the need for additional policy action to support growth, we now expect cumulative rate cuts totalling  75-bps in the current easing cycle.