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Economic Growth Registered Moderate Recovery in Q3; Need For Policy Support Continues

  • 1 Mar 2025
  • Post Views: 151

As expected, economic growth showed recovery in Q3 FY25, with real GDP expanding by 6.2%, up from 5.6% in Q2. This was driven by increased government spending, improved net exports and moderate recovery in private consumption. Investment remained steady, supported by higher government CAPEX, offsetting sluggish private investment. On the supply side, real GVA grew by 6.2%, fuelled by strong agricultural performance, a moderate recovery in manufacturing, and a resilient services sector. The NSO revised upwards the FY24 and FY23 economic growth numbers by 100bps to 9.2% and 60bps to 7.6%, respectively. For FY25, the NSO advance estimate now puts the real GDP growth at 6.5%.  In comparison, we expect real GDP growth of 6.1% in FY25 due to reduced fiscal support in Q4. We forecast a moderate economic recovery to 6.4% in FY26, supported by policy measures such as repo rate cuts and income tax reductions, though global trade risks remain.