India Economic Monitor: The beginning of the end of the pandemic - Vaccine progress brightens prospects for economic recovery

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India Economic Monitor: The beginning of the end of the pandemic – Vaccine progress brightens prospects for economic recovery

India Economic Monitor: The beginning of the end of the pandemic – Vaccine progress brightens prospects for economic recovery

18 Dec 2020
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A turnaround in the COVID-situation has improved the trajectory of economic recovery for India in the current financial year. Moreover, the economic outlook for next year has received a shot in the arm thanks to a faster than anticipated timeline for the COVID-vaccination drive. India looks comfortably placed with regard to the COVID vaccine availability, considering the pre-orders are sufficient to secure around 80% of the population. However, distribution challenges will need to be addressed where private sector participation will help. In the interim, keeping a lid on COVID cases remain necessary for an uninterrupted economic recovery. We believe that India’s ongoing economic recovery is likely to gain traction in the second half of the fiscal year and receive a further push into FY22 from the vaccine availability. Accordingly, we project real GDP to contract by 7.8%YoY in the FY21 compared to our earlier estimate of 9.8%YoY and forecast real GDP growth of 9.9%YoY compared to 7.8%YoY previously.

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