India Economic Monitor: The beginning of the end of the pandemic - Vaccine progress brightens prospects for economic recovery

Home
News & Media
macro economic monitor
research reports
India Economic Monitor: The beginning of the end of the pandemic – Vaccine progress brightens prospects for economic recovery

India Economic Monitor: The beginning of the end of the pandemic – Vaccine progress brightens prospects for economic recovery

18 Dec 2020
Post Views: 4854
Share

A turnaround in the COVID-situation has improved the trajectory of economic recovery for India in the current financial year. Moreover, the economic outlook for next year has received a shot in the arm thanks to a faster than anticipated timeline for the COVID-vaccination drive. India looks comfortably placed with regard to the COVID vaccine availability, considering the pre-orders are sufficient to secure around 80% of the population. However, distribution challenges will need to be addressed where private sector participation will help. In the interim, keeping a lid on COVID cases remain necessary for an uninterrupted economic recovery. We believe that India’s ongoing economic recovery is likely to gain traction in the second half of the fiscal year and receive a further push into FY22 from the vaccine availability. Accordingly, we project real GDP to contract by 7.8%YoY in the FY21 compared to our earlier estimate of 9.8%YoY and forecast real GDP growth of 9.9%YoY compared to 7.8%YoY previously.

Read Full Report Download as PDF

Disclaimer:This research report material the Report is for the personal information of the authorised recipient s and is not for public distribution and should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or in any form without DMI s prior permission p p In the preparation of this Report Read more the preparation of this Report, DMI has used information that is publicly available as well as data gathered from third party sources. Information gathered and material used in this Report is believed to have been obtained from reliable sources. DMI, however makes no warranty, representation or undertaking, whether expressed or implied, that such information is accurate, complete or up to date or current as of the date of reading of the Report, nor does it assume any legal liability, whether direct or indirect or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, currency or usefulness of any information in this Report. Additionally, no third party will assume any direct or indirect liability. It is the responsibility of the user or recipient of this Report to make its/his/her own decisions or enquiries about the accuracy, currency, reliability and correctness of information found in this Report.

Any statement expressed as recommendation in this Report is general in nature and should be construed strictly as current opinion of DMI as of the date of the Report and may be subject to change from time to time without prior intimation or notice. The readers of this Report should carefully read, understand and investigate or enquire (either with or without professional advisors) into the risks arising out of or attached to taking any decisions based on the information or opinions contained in this Report. DMI or its officers, directors, personnel and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this Report may have potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions.

Neither DMI nor any of its officers, directors, personnel and employees shall be liable for any loss, claim, damage of whatsoever any nature, including but not limited to, direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss of profit in any way arising from the use of this Report or the information therein or reliance of opinions contained in this Report, in any manner.

No part of this Report may be duplicated or copied in whole or in part in any form and or redistributed without the prior written consent of DMI. Any reproduction, adaptation, distribution or dissemination of the information available in this Report for commercial purpose or use is strictly prohibited unless prior written authorisation is obtained from DMI. The Report has been prepared in India and the Report shall be subject only to Indian laws. Any foreign reader(s) or foreign recipient(s) of this Report are requested to kindly take note of this fact. Any disputes relating to the Report shall be subject to jurisdiction of Republic of India only.