India’s economic growth outlook is becoming increasingly cautious amid softening high-frequency economic data. Excess rainfall and an extended monsoon season have also dampened economic activity and contributed to inflation, particularly in food prices. In its October meeting, the RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% and revised its policy stance to ‘neutral’. The RBI expressed greater confidence in navigating disinflation despite anticipated near-term inflationary pressures. This, coupled with slowing economic growth should keep alive the possibility of a rate cut in December. However, if inflation remains unexpectedly elevated in October, we do not rule out the likelihood of a rate cut shifting to Q4-FY25.