Economic resilience and sticky inflation, particularly in the US have pushed back timelines for anticipated interest rate cuts by central banks. This combined with the strengthening dollar could make it more difficult for countries like India to ease monetary policy solely based on domestic conditions. Domestically economic growth for Q4 remained strong, although with some moderation compared to Q3 due to weaker rural demand. Looking forward to FY25, the economic growth looks optimistic on the prospect of a normal monsoon and a potential revival in private sector investments. However, the downside risks to the outlook persist from lower global growth impacting exports, high geopolitical uncertainty affecting oil prices, potential food price increases, and an increase in GDP deflator which will lower real GDP growth. Strong growth, elevated food inflation, delayed Fed rate cuts, and MPC members’ preference to get a better clarity on the progression of the monsoon suggest no rate cuts before the second half of 2024. Further, room for significant cuts is limited with inflation projected to reaccelerate towards the end of the year.