Potential for the world in the post pandemic era; India’s GDP surprises with a better than expected recovery

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Potential for the world in the post pandemic era; India’s GDP surprises with a better than expected recovery

Potential for the world in the post pandemic era; India’s GDP surprises with a better than expected recovery

27 Nov 2020
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This report presents a broad and strategic view of the impact of COVID-19 on the global economy by placing it in the historical context of the great macroeconomic shocks of the 20th century. It gives us a framework to think of the possible outcomes as the world starts to look beyond the pandemic to economic recovery. The report ends with an analysis of the Indian Q2 FY2020-21 GDP release. India’s Q2 FY2021 GDP data positively surprised as it registered a contraction of -7.5% YoY compared to our projection of -9.1%. With a positive surprise in Q2 and a pick-up in economic activity in Q3, we see a strong possibility of a smaller economic contraction than -9.8% YoY that we had previously projected. Further, we also see improved prospects for economic recovery in FY2022 supported by the recent positive news regarding the outlook for vaccine development and its availability.

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