In today’s monetary policy meeting, the RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.50%. Furthermore, it retained the stance of “withdrawal of accommodation”. The tone of the meeting remained cautiously hawkish recognizing the upside risks to inflation and the need to bring it down to a target of 4%. For outlook, the quarterly inflation projections were slightly nudged downward while the annual forecast for FY25 was retained at 4.5%. The growth forecast was also kept unchanged at 7% for FY25. Further, there was no change in the liquidity management communication – the bank will continue to conduct two-way operations to manage liquidity. Given strong growth expectations, and based on the central bank’s current inflation projections, we retain our view that the rate cuts could begin in Q2 FY25. However, given that inflation is expected to accelerate again in the second half of FY25, we continue to believe that the room for substantial cuts will be limited.
In the preparation of this Report, DMI has used information that is publicly available as well as data gathered from third party sources. Information gathered and material used in this Report is believed to have been obtained from reliable sources. DMI, however makes no warranty, representation or undertaking, whether expressed or implied, that such information is accurate, complete or up to date or current as of the date of reading of the Report, nor does it assume any legal liability, whether direct or indirect or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, currency or usefulness of any information in this Report. Additionally, no third party will assume any direct or indirect liability. It is the responsibility of the user or recipient of this Report to make its/his/her own decisions or enquiries about the accuracy, currency, reliability and correctness of information found in this Report.
Any statement expressed as recommendation in this Report is general in nature and should be construed strictly as current opinion of DMI as of the date of the Report and may be subject to change from time to time without prior intimation or notice. The readers of this Report should carefully read, understand and investigate or enquire (either with or without professional advisors) into the risks arising out of or attached to taking any decisions based on the information or opinions contained in this Report. DMI or its officers, directors, personnel and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this Report may have potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions.
Neither DMI nor any of its officers, directors, personnel and employees shall be liable for any loss, claim, damage of whatsoever any nature, including but not limited to, direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss of profit in any way arising from the use of this Report or the information therein or reliance of opinions contained in this Report, in any manner.
No part of this Report may be duplicated or copied in whole or in part in any form and or redistributed without the prior written consent of DMI. Any reproduction, adaptation, distribution or dissemination of the information available in this Report for commercial purpose or use is strictly prohibited unless prior written authorisation is obtained from DMI. The Report has been prepared in India and the Report shall be subject only to Indian laws. Any foreign reader(s) or foreign recipient(s) of this Report are requested to kindly take note of this fact. Any disputes relating to the Report shall be subject to jurisdiction of Republic of India only.
Read less
